AVAX Poised for a 40% Breakout: Will Bulls or Bears Take Control?

Avalanche’s native crypto, AVAX, has struggled to recover in 2025, even as other cryptocurrencies gain momentum. 

Over the past month, AVAX has dropped by 14%, with its price at $36.03. The token recorded a small 0.46% gain in the last 24 hours, though it remains 11.23% lower over the past week. 

Its 24-hour trading volume is $472.5 million, while the market capitalization stands at $14.82 billion, based on a circulating supply of 410 million AVAX tokens.

AVAX Price Consolidates Within a Narrow Range

The AVAX/USDT chart shows that the crypto is trading within a descending triangle pattern. This setup features lower highs marked by a downward-sloping trendline and a horizontal support level at $34.18. 

The $34.18 level has acted as a strong defense for buyers, but repeated tests may weaken this zone. A drop below $34.18 could open the door to price levels of $29.17, $24.69, or even $22.18, based on Fibonacci extension levels.

To regain upward momentum, AVAX must break above the descending trendline, currently near $37–$38. Additional resistance levels include $37.53 (0.618 Fibonacci retracement) and $40.17 (0.5 Fibonacci retracement), which have previously rejected price recovery attempts.

Crypto analyst Ali noted, 

“Avalanche is primed for a 40% price move once it breaks outside of the $37–$33 range.” 

This aligns with the technical pattern, though the direction of the breakout will determine the next major move.

Spot Netflow Indicates Investor Accumulation

Netflow data for January 24, 2025, shows an outflow of 2.18 million AVAX tokens, signaling that investors are moving tokens off exchanges. This trend reflects accumulation or a reduction in selling pressure. 

Consistent outflows since late December suggest that many investors are holding onto their tokens rather than preparing to sell.

In contrast, large inflows exceeding $20 million were recorded between mid-November and early December, which coincided with selling activity during price peaks. 

The current trend of steady outflows indicates a shift in behavior, as market participants appear to be accumulating AVAX at lower price levels.

Trading Activity Remains High

Despite the recent price decline, AVAX trading activity remains robust. Data from Coinglass shows that trading volume rose by 38.03% to $702.2 million, while open interest increased slightly by 0.40% to $678.33 million. 

These figures indicate strong interest from traders, with many preparing for a decisive move once the price exits the current range.

As AVAX trades between $33 and $37, its next move depends on whether the $34.18 support level holds or resistance near $37 is broken. If the price breaks downward, lower levels could come into play. 

Conversely, a breakout above resistance would create room for further gains, with traders closely monitoring this range for signs of a trend reversal.

FAQs: