Bitcoin $150K Probability Slips to 36% Before 2026 Halving

Bitcoin traders are rethinking their optimism as the probability of BTC hitting $150,000. Before the 2026 halving has dropped to 36%, according to prediction data from Kalshi. The shift in odds reflects a cooling in short-term bullish sentiment. Even as investors remain broadly confident in Bitcoin’s long-term potential.

Traders Reprice Bitcoin’s Next Big Move

Prediction markets often act as a barometer of market sentiment. Kalshi’s latest data shows that only about one in three traders believe Bitcoin will reach $150,000 before April 2026. While that’s still a significant bet, it marks a noticeable decline from earlier optimism during Bitcoin’s run past $120,000.

The chart shared by Whale Insider captures that mood swing volatility. Then a slow decline and now consolidation. The contract volume of over $13 million signals active trading but also hesitation about near-term highs. On rival platform Polymarket, the odds are even lower. It is sitting between 27% and 31% for Bitcoin hitting $150K by March 2026. As one trader noted on X, the drop doesn’t necessarily mean bearishness. “When Kalshi odds cool off, it’s recalibration,” says an analyst. “Traders are basically saying: still bullish, just less certain.”

Bitcoin ETFs Show Outflows as Sentiment Softens

Data from SoSoValue shows a net outflow of $186.5 million from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs on November 3. With total assets under management now at $143.51 billion, roughly 6.75% of Bitcoin’s market cap. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) recorded the entire outflow. While other funds like Fidelity’s FBTC and Ark’s ARKB remained flat. Despite the pullback, cumulative inflows across all ETFs still total more than $61 billion. 

The overall picture suggests that while institutional interest hasn’t vanished.  Investors may be taking profits or waiting for a clearer macro signal before re-entering aggressively. Fidelity, Grayscale, and Ark all saw trading volumes in the hundreds of millions. But daily prices fell around 2.9%. The synchronized decline across issuers mirrors Bitcoin’s own correction. This has seen the asset slip to around $107,600 after October’s slump.

Macro Signals Hint at Temporary Cooling

According to crypto research platform Cointel, broader macro indicators also hint at a cooling phase before Bitcoin’s next leg up. The site’s analysis highlighted rising liquidity but a flat price. This suggests BTC remains undervalued relative to stablecoins. Cointel noted that large amounts of capital, nearly $3.4 trillion. 

It has exited gold markets this year, equal to the combined market caps of Bitcoin, Ethereum, Binance Coin, Solana and XRP. That capital shift could eventually benefit crypto assets as investors look for alternative hedges. Meanwhile, global factors like the upcoming U.S.-China summit and patterns from recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings point to short-term volatility. Analysts expect possible dips before Bitcoin attempts a new all time high.

Traders Stay Cautious But Hopeful

Market analyst JV Trades shared that he remains cautious. Keeping his short positions open from $124K and $113K until the higher time frame turns bullish again. He highlighted two critical resistance zones at $108,300 and $112,000 levels. That could define whether Bitcoin breaks lower or rebounds.

Currently, the mood across prediction markets and ETF flows is one of cautious recalibration. Bitcoin’s long-term fundamentals remain intact. But traders seem to be pausing to let the market reset before the next major move. As one trader summarized it, “Everyone turns bearish right before the market embarrasses them. Keep fading Bitcoin, it loves proving people wrong.”