Bitcoin Volume Explodes on US Exchanges: Will Bitcoin Break the $85K Barrier Soon?

Bitcoin trading is starting to shift gears again, and this time, it’s the US-based exchanges stepping back into the spotlight. A key metric called the “US vs. Off-Shore Ratio,” which compares how much BTC volume is handled on American platforms versus those overseas, shows signs of a fresh turnaround. This ratio had shot above the 1.0 mark in 2023, a signal that US exchanges were taking the lead. While it cooled off earlier this year, it never dipped below 1, meaning US platforms stayed in control. That ratio is nudging upward again, hinting that American traders might be gearing up for another big move.

Last Time This Happened, Bitcoin Took Off

On-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr points out that we’ve seen this pattern before, and it ended with a bang. Back in 2023, when the exact reversal showed up and the ratio started climbing, Bitcoin was hovering around $60K. Soon after, it surged into a full-blown Bitcoin Rally, pushing to new all-time highs. A big part of that move came after a crossover between the 90-day and 365-day moving averages, a classic bullish signal. Those same averages are starting to close the gap again, and while the crossover hasn’t happened yet, it’s one to watch. If it plays out like last time, we could be on the edge of another strong move.

Is This the Start of Something Bigger?

Even without the confirmed crossover, the rise in Bitcoin volume on US exchanges suggests growing interest from stateside traders and institutions. That usually brings more liquidity, tighter spreads, and stronger market momentum. While it’s too early to call it a complete breakout, these early signs feel familiar. Let’s look at how the BTC Price is shaping up on the charts right now.

BTC Price Action Analysis of April 17th, 2025

The BTC Price began its trading session within a narrow range between $83,100 and $84,000 for the start of the early session, forming a well-defined trading box. A bullish breakout happened around 13:00 UTC, quickly driving prices hard into the resistance around $85,500. The breakout was supported by a bullish RSI that crossed overbought territory and a golden cross on the MACD, indicating the overall strength of those short-term momentum moves. With rejection occurring almost immediately as price neared resistance, price moved quickly to the downside, dropping roughly $2500 to find support at $83,200, which also corresponded closely with the prior consolidation.  

Chart 1, Analyzed by Alokkp0608, published on April 17th, 2025

The RSI dipped into oversold territory during the decline, and a MACD death cross further confirmed the bearish retracement. After bottoming out, the BTC price established a new ascending channel, bouncing from the support level near $83,200 and climbing back above $84,400. The recovery phase was marked by multiple golden crosses on the MACD and RSI movement from oversold to near-neutral territory, indicating a shift in momentum. During the trading sessions, Bitcoin again briefly entered the overbought zone, suggesting short-term exhaustion near the upper channel boundary. The MACD remains slightly bullish with a narrowing gap between its lines, implying weakening bullish momentum.

BTC Price Gears Up for What Could Be Next

Bitcoin is showing signs that something bigger might be brewing. With US exchanges slowly regaining Bitcoin volume dominance and momentum indicators flashing mixed signals, the market feels in a wait-and-see mode. After bouncing from support and climbing back into a rising channel, the BTC Price looks more stable, but not quite ready to break out. Traders seem cautiously optimistic, watching for that key crossover on the moving averages to confirm any significant move. If history is any guide, this shift could once again lay the groundwork for a strong Bitcoin Rally in the days ahead.