France, Germany, and the UK Support Return of Iran Sanctions

The latest developments over Iran’s nuclear program are pushing the situation toward another major sanctions showdown. France, Germany, and the UK have given Tehran until the end of August 2025 to come back to the table or face the full return of UN sanctions on Iran. This isn’t a small threat. It’s the snapback mechanism from the 2015 nuclear deal, the one that allows the automatic restoration of sanctions without China or Russia being able to block it. That option expires in October, so the clock is running.

Iran is holding over 400 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent purity. It is already enough to be turned into several nuclear weapons with further enrichment. The number of sanctions on Iran is already among the highest in the world. It has more than 5,000 measures in place. The current sanctions on Iran have pushed inflation to nearly 39 percent. GDP per capita has dropped from about $7,500 before heavy sanctions to roughly $4,500. Oil exports, once around 2.8 million barrels per day, are now closer to 1.65 million, with most going to China.

Effect on the Iranian Economy

Over the past twenty years, sanctions have hit Iran hard. UN sanctions began in the mid-2000s, aimed at its nuclear and missile programs. They were eased in 2015 after the JCPOA deal but came back stronger in 2018 when the US pulled out. Since then, more restrictions have targeted areas like shipping and technology. The short break Iran got in 2015 now feels far in the past. Even today, it can still enrich uranium to weapons-grade levels quickly. Experts think it could reach 90 percent purity in just a few weeks if it wanted to.

Financial Blacklisting under the UN

The snapback, if triggered, would mean a return to financial blacklists under the UN sanctions on Iran. The economic effect could be harsh, analysts project another 20-30 percent currency drop, oil exports cut in half, and inflation pushing past 45 percent. The impact of sanctions on Iran has already led to shadow banking systems, barter trade, and reliance on Chinese buyers to keep some revenue flowing.

Inside Iran, political divisions are deepening. The president is leaning toward negotiations while hardliners push for nuclear escalation. The intelligence ministry has warned that if the Iran sanctions lifted in 2015 come back in full force through snapback, the economy could face collapse. Public unrest is a real risk.

The next few weeks will determine whether diplomacy has any chance left or if the number of sanctions on Iran is about to surge again. With the current sanctions on Iran already straining its economy, any escalation will carry heavy costs not just for Tehran, but for regional stability and the broader non-proliferation effort.