IBIT ETF Holdings Grow by 118,000 BTC Since April 2025

On June 28, Axel Adler Jr. shared updated data on X regarding spot BTC ETFs. From early April 2025, total BTC held by U.S. spot ETFs, excluding GBTC, increased from 932,000 to 1,056,000 BTC. This growth of 124,000 BTC happened over 87 days, averaging 1,430 BTC added daily. BlackRock IBIT holdings were the main contributor, adding around 118,000 BTC during that time. Other ETFs together added only about 6,000 BTC, a much smaller portion. The data highlights BlackRock’s strong presence in the growing spot BTC ETF sector. Adler’s data helps track how institutional exposure to Bitcoin continues to evolve.

Weekly Net Inflows Highlight Ongoing Investor Interest in BTC ETFs

Net flow data adds more context to these changes. BlackRock IBIT recorded $1.31 billion in net inflows during the most recent week. June 24 marked its highest daily inflow, $436.3 million, based on Farside Investors’ data. Every trading day of that week recorded positive net inflows across spot BTC ETFs. Although short-term flows shift, daily gains suggest ongoing investor interest in Bitcoin ETF inflows. These consistent inflows indicate that interest is not just a temporary trend. They show an expanding role of ETFs in how investors access Bitcoin markets.

Image 1, Spot BTC ETF AUM, provided by Axel Adler Jr, June 28, 2025

Current inflows remain steady, with an average of 1,430 BTC added daily. This is close to the 13-day average of 1,320 BTC reported recently. If the trend continues into Q3, total BTC held by spot ETFs could exceed 1.3 million. That would represent about 6.2% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply. Under such growth, BlackRock IBIT holdings might reach near 817,000 BTC. These figures suggest a possible shift in supply dynamics if ETF interest grows further. The data points toward continued demand from institutions through regulated ETF products.

Most ETF Bitcoin Holdings Are Concentrated Among a Few Large Players

BlackRock IBIT now holds over 673,000 BTC, the most among spot BTC ETFs. Fidelity’s FBTC follows with more than 302,000 BTC, and GBTC holds close to 185,000 BTC. Together, these three funds control a major share of ETF-held BTC. This shows that institutional exposure is centered around a few large players. The concentration also reflects how major asset managers lead ETF-based Bitcoin investments. This pattern could shape how smaller funds enter or compete within this space. Such developments reveal a narrowing field of control among Bitcoin ETF offerings.

Recent LTH Activity Mirrors Pre-Rally Patterns from Past Bull Markets

Adler also reviewed on-chain trends among long-term holders (LTHs) and short-term holders (STHs). In past cycles, LTHs grew their share before strong price rallies. One key period was around $28,000 when Bitcoin climbed to $60,000 shortly after. A second wave of LTH growth appeared at $60,000, pushing price further to $100,000. These shifts suggest accumulation patterns often occur before significant upward movements. Adler’s analysis implies market structure may repeat earlier behavior. The observation ties current market positioning to previous bull trends.

Image 2, Spot BTC long-short term holders, provided by Axel Adler Jr, June 28, 2025

Conservative Forecast Points in Case Trends Repeat

With Bitcoin near $100,000, Adler notes LTHs are again increasing their share relative to STHs. This accumulation has continued for several weeks, resembling earlier pre-rally phases. Though outcomes aren’t guaranteed, these signs typically show preparation for major market moves. Adler stressed that historical trends do not ensure future price action. However, he emphasized the relevance of LTH behavior as a possible indicator. He uses these patterns to highlight risk-aware forecasting methods, not price certainty. Adler made a projection using earlier bull-cycle multipliers. He applied a ×1.6 ratio to suggest a potential price target of $160,000.