Is This the Final Shakeout Before Bitcoin’s Next Big Move? Analysts Break It Down

Bitcoin’s price has been stuck near the $84,000 range despite a recent recovery. While the broader market appears cautious, analysts believe this stagnation may represent a final shakeout before Bitcoin’s next big move. By examining short-term holder metrics like SOPR and Realized Price, some market observers are finding bullish signals beneath the surface.

STH-SOPR Hints at Capitulation Before Rebound

After a series of volatile price swings, Bitcoin has settled around $84,449, down 0.7% in the last 24 hours. This consolidation comes amid macroeconomic uncertainty and declining momentum across risk assets. According to analysts, the recent pullback might be linked to short-term holders (STHs) exiting their positions under pressure.

A key metric to watch is the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR). Currently sitting below 1.0 on the 14-day moving average, the indicator suggests that many recent BTC buyers are selling at a loss—a pattern often seen in capitulation phases during bull markets.

Historically, similar dips in SOPR have marked temporary market bottoms as more experienced investors absorb the weak hands. While not a guarantee of reversal, this metric supports the view that the market may be shaking out short-term sellers before the next leg up.

Realized Price Shows Potential Accumulation Zone

Another indicator gaining attention is the STH Realized Price, which currently hovers near $92,000. This represents the average cost basis for coins held by short-term investors. Bitcoin’s current price below this metric may indicate undervaluation relative to recent buying activity.

CryptoQuant analyst CryptoMe notes that red zones on the chart—when spot price dips below the STH Realized Price—have historically coincided with major accumulation phases during bullish cycles. While it’s not a guaranteed bottom, it does reflect favorable conditions for longer-term investors.

Strategic Outlook: Hedge and Accumulate

CryptoMe suggests a balanced strategy amid this uncertain phase. While many short-term traders are offloading assets, patient investors could use this dip to accumulate. However, given lingering macroeconomic risks, the analyst advocates a hedged approach: holding spot BTC while maintaining protective short positions in derivatives markets.

“Capitulation doesn’t confirm a market bottom, but it offers a signal,” the analyst notes. “If liquidity conditions improve, Bitcoin could quickly reverse its course.” This echoes a broader belief that BTC remains fundamentally strong, and any break above key resistance could fuel a rally.

Until that happens, Bitcoin’s price action may remain muted. Still, for those with a longer horizon, current levels might represent a stealth accumulation zone ahead of a possible breakout.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s struggle to reclaim higher levels could be less about weakness and more about a strategic shakeout of short-term holders. Metrics like STH-SOPR and Realized Price point toward growing selling pressure from recent buyers, often a precursor to recovery phases in past bull cycles. Analysts urge caution but see the current landscape as an opportunity for smart accumulation before the market makes its next big move.