Lance Lambert Breaks Down What the US Housing Market Is Really Telling Us

On June 20, the housing market in the US is a significant indicator of the health of the overall economy, due to changes in consumer confidence, impacts from changes in policy, and differences in relative regional economies. As mortgage rates continue to rise, the activity in the market decreases (or, supply tightens), and the housing market shows what economies do to people’s lives, businesses and their investment decisions. Tracing trends from a regional perspective, like the US housing market, provides a clearer picture of what is occurring and the nuances that are mired in the average values at a national level.

In a masterclass hosted by Lance Lambert from ResiClub, we saw that regional housing market trends can identify the timing and pace of significant factors, such as tariffs and immigration enforcement, as these factors filter through local housing markets. This can be represented in hot metro locations in the Sun Belt and cooling locations in the Midwest and in patterns across the country, showcasing a set of warning signs and growth opportunities across rural and urban America.

By analyzing the economic signals in housing markets regionally, we can better anticipate the overall economy via jobs, inflation, and consumer spending. Whether you’re a homeowner, real estate investor, or policymaker, being able to accentuate a local geography allows you to make better-informed decisions when headline news of a national scale rarely reflects the on-the-ground reality.

Regional Markets: A Tale of Two Americas

Across America, there is a growingchasm between prospering metro areas and stagnant areas. The Sun Belt is realizing amazing home sales and new construction. Much of this is driven by remote work and migration to that region. The older Rust Belt markets, on the other hand, are cooling, stunted by stagnant incomes and slow job growth. As we track the US housing market in different regions, we also see what happens in different local economies and their tax bases.

Tariffs & Construction Costs

Tariffs on building materials such as steel and lumber are raising construction expenses across the country, but these same increases have different implications across the country. Coastal areas, which rely heavily on imported materials and labor, experience price increases more acutely than inland markets, that rely on more regional supply chains. The ramifications of the prices of these materials will influence new housing starts and indicate the next areas where regional markets will pick up steam or slow down.

ICE Deportations: Labor Market Impacts

Lambert emphasizes how immigration enforcement impacts the housing supply in a more indirect manner. In regions like California’s Central Valley or parts of Florida where notably larger immigrant workforces exist, larger displacement events by ICE (U.S. Immigrations and Customs Enforcement) tend to have more severe impacts on construction activity. When construction slows because the availability of labor across the stages of the process slows it’s assuredly going to limit home builds and further decrease inventory. Hence, the regional housing situation acts like the canary in the coal mine; it gives earlier indications of how the shock of immigration policy will play out on Main Street.

Shifts in Buyer Behavior & Migration

The ability to work remotely has changed the nature of migration and housing demand. With the high-cost metros such as San Francisco and New York shedding residents to more affordable cities in Texas, Arizona, and the Carolinas, migration patterns not only push movement to mid-sized cities but also changing housing affordability locally and planning needs for municipalities. Tracking regional housing trends will provide insight into where buyers will migrate to and what infrastructure will come next.

What This Means for the US Economy?

The US housing market doesn’t just reflect regional dynamics, it actively drives them. Housing spending accounts for a sizable chunk of GDP. When regions experience housing booms, job creation follows in construction, retail, and services. Conversely, cooling markets risk stagnation and downward pressure on consumer confidence. By monitoring economic signals at the local level, investors and policymakers can stay ahead of the curve.

Investor Takeaways from Regional Data

In today’s dynamic real estate landscape, it’s essential to look beyond broad national metrics and focus on local variations that can significantly impact investment success. Diversifying regionally is a smart move—rather than concentrating solely on overheated coastal markets, investors should explore emerging opportunities in the growing Sun Belt and mid-America regions. It’s also crucial to track tariff exposure, as markets dependent on imported building materials may experience hidden cost pressures that can affect profitability.

Labor dynamics are another key factor to monitor; enforcement actions or policy shifts can quickly reduce labor supply, tightening housing inventory and affecting construction timelines. Additionally, following migration patterns is more important than ever, with remote work trends driving demand in unexpected areas and giving rise to new “hot” markets. By applying these strategies, investors can stay ahead of the curve and make more informed, localized decisions.

Final Thoughts

When dumbed down to a regional level, the US housing market offers significant signals about the economy that affect everything from inflation to infrastructure. As Lance Lambert’s analysis illustrates, tariffs, ICE enforcement, migration, and labor trends differ from city to state, and the local housing trends enable stakeholders, both policymakers and buyers, to have necessary insight in an uncertain economy. 

Looking at the local stories behind national headlines gives us clarity and context. The areas where construction is behind or buyer demand is leading the charge are often the regions that will reference the next chapter of America’s economic story. If you’re looking to get informed and get ahead, you’ll be watching these housing market trends.