Virtuals Protocol (VIRTUAL) Gains 400% in April, Yet On-Chain Metrics Signal Weak Growth

Virtual Protocol (VIRTUAL) had a remarkable comeback in April 2025 by getting up from a devastating 90% drop earlier this year. Since April 9, the token has skyrocketed by over 400% and broken its long-standing resistance, reaching a new two-month high. This sudden surge has reignited the sense of optimism and investors’ interest in the VIRTUAL token, yet the question remains: can the rally sustain longer, given its current data? Let’s understand the VIRTUAL more below to get a comprehensive understanding.

Weak On-Chain Activity Paints a Cautionary Picture

Despite the impressive price performance, the on-chain fundamentals of the VIRTUAL token reveal a stark contrast. Since the beginning of 2025, user engagement and VIRTUAL Protocol utility have been on a downward spiral. Daily revenue from the AI agent has decreased from over $1.5 million in January to below $50,000 in April. The Base Virtuals applications, once a significant revenue contributor, have become nearly inactive, and the creation of new AI agents has come to a standstill. Most of the current income source is from previously deployed sentiment AI agents, suggesting a lack of fresh momentum from within the ecosystem. 

Active Wallets Surge on Base and Solana

Despite the revenue being down, interestingly, the crypto wallet activity has started to rise. In the past 5 days alone, the number of unique active wallets for VIRTUAL on Base and Solana has hiked by 95%. This spike could indicate renewed interest among the users, potentially tied to short-term speculative buying or the deployment of existing agents. Whether this uptick will translate to sustainable engagement is something that will only be revealed and hidden in the near future. 

Technical Outlook Signals Short-Term Strength

As of April 29, 2025, the price of Virtual Token is trading at $1.4488, showing a 3.32% increase, or +0.0465, from the previous close. This upward trajectory is a broader surge in the VIRTUAL price, which has risen by over 400% since early April, driven by heightened investor interest and increased AI agent activity on the platform. 

VIRTUAL/USD chart, published on TradingView, April 29, 2025

From a technical analysis perspective, the VIRTUAL surge that took place after the breakout of the $1.45 resistance is a significant development. Indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remain in bullish territory. Although RSI indicates that the asset is overbought currently, near 83.9, it has yet to show a definite bearish divergence. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator also supports a bullish trajectory, a strong +0.23, and suggests robust capital flow. 

Wave Count Suggests a Potential Local Top

However, for investors, it is best to stay cautious, as the Elliott Wave count points to a complete five-wave upward pattern, implying that the ongoing rise could be a part of an A-B-C corrective move rather than the start of a new long-term trend. The third wave of the current pattern has extended 3.61 times the length of wave one to a common termination point. Moreover, a bearish divergence is forming on the six-hour RSI chart, indicating an environment of retraction. If a correction begins, the price may fall to the $0.96-$0.97 range before finding new support. 

Can VIRTUAL Reach $2.25 Again?

Now, the question is, can the VIRTUAL Protocol token reach the mark of $2.25 again? Then yes! If only this bullish momentum continues to be like that, and buying pressure remains high. A VIRTUAL token could attempt to retest the $2.25 level last seen in January. To do this, it must hold above the $1.44 support zone and continue to attract active participation and protocol usage.